Ice Cream Sandwich (Android 4.0) is a big step towards fixing the Android fragmentation problems. Tablets and cell phones will be running the same operating system, similar to Apple's iPhone/iPod Touch and iPad. However, based on how manufactures have acted in the past 3 years of Android (wow, only 3 years, it seems like we've had smartphones forever, at least to me), I doubt we will see too many upgrades.
My previous phone, an LG ALLY was supposed to be upgraded to Gingerbread (2.3), but lived its entire life running Froyo (2.2). It ended up dying back in September (sad trumbone), and Verizon sent me a new phone, the Motorola Devour. The Devour is supposed to be upgraded to Ice Cream Sandwich, but I am not holding my breath.
The phones that are most likely to be upgraded are the Nexus S , Nexus S 4G, the Motorola RAZR (if it doesn't come out of stores with ICS), the Samsung Galaxy S II (2), and maybe the LG Revolution. It is really hard to predict who will get the upgrade. First, the phone's hardware has to be capable of running the new OS. In this case, I would assume that any phone made within the past three months would able to run it, unless it is a 'cheapy' phone. Any high quality phone, like a Droid if you are on Verizon, made within the past 6 months or so should be able to run the new OS. Unfortunately, the most important decision is, is it worth it to push out a update to customers, or should we just have them buy a new phone to get the upgraded OS.
The tablets that are most likely to be ugraded are the Motorola Xoom and the Samsung Galaxy Tab.
Previously, manufacturers, including HTC, Motorola, Samsung, and especially LG, have made decisions that it is better to have the new OSes used as 'bait' to get customers to upgrade faster. Normally I would not have a problem with this, but most of us here on the United States are locked in to two year contracts for each phone we get. When Gingerbread went gold, I had had my Ally for not even 6 months and LG had used the new OS as 'bait' to get me to upgrade quicker.
In summary, I believe that there will still be a problem with fragmentation on Android. Predicting who will get the upgrade to Android Ice Cream Sandwich (4.0) is as predictable as deciding right now who will be the next US president (we are still more than a year away from the election). Getting ICS will depend on two main questions: Is my phone/tablet hardware capable of running the new OS? (This counts me out, even though the Motorola Devour was released in July, it is only able to run up to Gingerbread.) And Is my phone/tablet manufacture willing to push out the update, knowing that it would be one less reason for customers to buy another 200 or 300 dollar device (we in the US get lower prices for our devices because we agree to a two year contract)? We do know that Google has been talking with manufacturers to push out more updates because Gingerbread and ICS both come with major security fixes, but it is unlikely that Google will be successful.
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